Prediction Roundup: Volume II

 Prediction Roundup attempts to rationalize and provide insight to some of the gaming industry's most pressing questions by using deductive reasoning and supporting facts. Following each prediction is a handy "confidence meter" displaying how Game Nook views the prediction's probability.

 1) Is Amnesia: A Machine for Pigs Launching before Halloween 2012?

Though Amnesia: A Machine for Pigs, the anticipated sequel to 2010's Amnesia: The Dark Descent, is slated to launch before Halloween 2012, it may be realistic to remain skeptical of this launch window. According to Joystiq's article "Building A Machine for Pigs and expanding the universe of Amnesia", it was revealed that A Machine for Pigs began development in December of 2011 and is being developed by thechineseroom. thechineseroom has five employees developing this sequel according to its website, while Frictional Games acts as the game's producer. Adding this up, the Machine for Pigs' 5-man development team has to ship a highly anticipated sequel in less than 11 months. In addition, Amnesia's sequel is set in Victorian era London, which may require a considerable amount of new art assets.

To be fair however, Frictional Games set this launch window for a reason, as it must feel confident it can deliver a quality sequel within this time frame. It's also unclear the specifics of how A Machine for Pigs is being developed. Since these specifics are unclear, this prediction receives an average confidence rating. 

Confidence Level: 3/5 Nooks

2) What is Project Titan?

Project Titan, the codename for Blizzard's next MMO is shrouded in secrecy, very little is known about the project. What is known however, fails to provide a convincing picture of what Titan actually is: we know it's unrelated to World of Warcraft and could have in-game advertisements. Not wanting to compete with one of its own properties, Blizzard may implement a free-to-play (FTP) model or something similar in Titan. This isn't only consistent with the majority of MMOs in today's market, but Titan's use of in-game ads also suggests it's not subscription-based.

Looking at the stagnant and over-crowded MMORPG genre, it also wouldn't be surprising if Titan isn't an MMORPG, but something radically different instead. In addition, its use of in-game advertisements could suggest Titan is set in the real world. But, judging by Blizzard's history, setting a game in a non-fantasy world is out of character for the company and not likely to happen as a result. However, in-game advertisements could be successfully implemented in a science-fiction setting.

In conclusion, Game Nook predicts Project Titan is a science fiction based, FTP-esque MMO that is a radical departure from the traditional MMORPG. Given how scarce details are regarding the project and how vague this speculation is however, this predictions earns a low confidence rating.

Confidence Level: 2/5 Nooks

3) Could Halo receive the Call of Duty Elite treatment? 

While rumors indicate that EA's Battlefield franchise could receive a Call of Duty Elite-like subscription service, Microsoft has yet to announce how its Halo franchise will respond to this growing trend. Looking at the facts though, it's unlikely Halo will implement this service model. Microsoft loves milking the Halo franchise: the toys, comics, books, and the existence of Halo 4 are proof of that. It even has the infrastructure already in place to make this service a reality. However, Game Nook expects Halo to be monetized in a different way.

During and post Halo 3, Microsoft has emphasized Halo's wealth of free, quality content in a strategic attempt to gain and maintain an audience. This will continue in Halo 4 as evidenced by the Forge and Theatre modes, a new mode called Spartan Ops, and Halo Waypoint content. Instead of charging for these features, Game Nook expects Microsoft to implement a micro transaction system to compliment the free content. Similar in concept to Halo 3's "Render Minutes," Microsoft could expand this idea, charging for unique weapon skins, armor, forge pieces, file-share space, and so on. This prediction receives a high confidence rating because it keeps Halo competitive and is consistent with Halo's reputation of providing a host of free content.

Confidence level: 4/5 Nooks

4) Will XCOM be rebranded?

XCOM, the FPS reimagining by 2K Marin, has been in troubled territory for years now. XCOM received negative criticisms from fans and journalists alike, causing 2K Marin to revamp the title, possibly causing it to delay into 2013. It wouldn't be surprising if 2K Marin utilized this extra time to address the pessimistic feedback by rebranding the game or drastically overhauling its mechanics. It may however make more sense for 2K to drop the XCOM name entirely and instead create a new IP to calm the negative press. EA's Syndicate, an FPS reboot from another past RTS franchise, received similar controversy and performed poorly at retail. 2K may rebrand XCOM based on continued negative reactions, delays, and Syndicate's performance. Game Nook would be very surprised if XCOM remained in its current form. Therefore, this prediction receives a high confidence rating.

Confidence level: 5/5 Nooks