Next Generation: The Rise of AA Games?

2012 wasn't a pretty year for the video game industry. Hardware and software sales slumped 22% year-over-year and retail sales declined for the thirteenth consecutive month in December, according to NPD. Free-to-play models, cheap mobile games, and the recovering economy are among those responsible for the AAA industry's woes according to industry analysts. Though the next generation of consoles will most likely reinvigorate excitement surrounding core games, I doubt that'll be enough to offset its current problems.

However, I question whether mobile games and the economic climate are solely responsible for the industry's slump in recent years. Are the disappointing sales of Max Payne 3, Spec Ops: the Line, and Sleeping Dogs solely caused by the above factors? There's little doubt that both are at work, but I think there's an equally significant component that's contributing to their poor sales: changing tastes.

Gamers are bored.  There are so many quality titles being released, offering essentially the same experience, that consumers have taken notice. There are just too many hollow, adrenaline-pumping experiences on the market, making the industry oversaturated. The trend by publishers to create games that are more accessible isn't sustainable because when everyone does it, everything feels the same.
 

Since development budgets are at an all time high, it's understandable that publishers are engaging in this behaviour. Few companies are willing to fund proprietary experiences especially at the end of a console cycle. But their attempts to make "safe" games aren't producing favourable returns either, as evidenced by DMC: Devil May Cry, Darksiders 2, Resident Evil 6, and the other aforementioned titles. Since next-generation development costs are reportedly going to double, publishers probably won't be investing in as many AAA games, accessible or not. To compensate for these bloated costs, the industry could birth a new gaming category: the AA game.

AA games would cut costs in two ways. First, they'd offer shorter, more compact experiences compared to their AAA counterparts. This would decrease development time, budgets, and people required to create core experiences. And second, they'd be sold digitally which not only cuts costs, but is consistent with the "all digital" trajectory of video game distribution. These methods will allow these games to have cheaper price points which will increase consumers' buying power. 

 The notion of a AA game isn't unheard of, since Cliff Blaszinski recently suggested that disc-based $60 horror games aren't sustainable and later commented that horror games can only survive in the digital market. Though he's strictly talking about the horror genre, it's not a stretch to suggest that this format can accommodate a range of niche experiences. As long as publishers continue to cater to the casual crowd, the demand for core experiences will only increase.

Since accessible games will be confined to the AAA space to remain profitable, AA games have the ability to cater to hardcore gamers without sacrificing profits. Like Bleszinski suggested, survival horror, and other niche games like RPGs, and deep strategy games may thrive in this cheap, more compact form. This increase in game variety solves the host of bland experiences promoted by the current industry.

AA games may also encourage innovation since they're less costly to develop. David Cage and Warren Spector recently expressed their displeasure with the lack of mature content in games and demanded experiences with more substance; AA games would be the perfect driver for this content. Narrative-intensive experiences aimed at an older demographic is industry-defying. Since AA games are less risky, it could be appealing for publishers to test potential market segments with these smaller titles.

Though AA games would be shorter, they'd be more compact and direct. Some video games today can last 20+ hours and are crammed with pointless tasks and mindless gameplay at every turn. The grinding, fetch quests, side quests, and monotonous shooting aren't fun and hurt the quality of the story as a result. These mechanics bog down the experience and used to inflate the runtime of single player games.

But AA games' limited budget can cut out this unnecessary jargon and provide a more focused experience. Journey for example, received Game of the Year awards from many review outlets but was only a couple hours long at best. Its budget demanded that everything in the game have purpose and its limited scope allowed for good pacing. AA games have the potential to offer games like Journey where both gameplay and narrative benefit from budget constraints. 

Considering the increased risk associated with creating future AAA games, publishers may seek alternatives to turn a profit. I predict that next generation will see a new gaming category of short gaming experiences that doesn't sacrifice the production values of blockbuster games.  We've already begun to see similar middle-tier segments grow as evidenced by The Walking Dead, Journey, and Amnesia: the Dark Descent. If AA games do emerge next generation, it will be the result of rising development costs and continued alienation of various demographics.