Halo 4 Has a Descent Shot At Outselling Black Ops II

It's that time of year again. A time where gamers speculate whether Game X can overthrow the latest Call of Duty. Last year, CoD was up against Battlefield 3, and the year before that, was matched against Medal of Honor and Halo: Reach. But it seems that no matter what it's paired up against, Call of Duty continues to smash sales records and shatter the expectations of gamers everywhere. However, I'm convinced that's going to change in 2012. Well, at least for the Xbox 360.

Unlike past competitors, Halo 4 actually has a realistic shot at outselling a Call of Duty title on Microsoft's platform. Battlefield 3 and Medal of Honor were projected to do well (and they did), but I don't think many expected them to outperform Activision's juggernaut. Halo: Reach had a similar fortune, since non-numbered installments tend to not do as well than those that are. Halo 4, on the other hand, is the biggest threat Call of Duty has ever faced. To prove it, I'll present three pieces of evidence: current market statistics, Halo 4's game mechanics, and marketing.

To start, let's look at current market statistics for both Halo 4 and Black Ops II. Note that all figures are for the Xbox 360. At the time of writing, Halo 4 holds the number 1 spot for pre-orders in the United States with 454,068 copies. Black Ops II is currently at number 3 with around 243,392 pre-ordered copies. This means Halo 4 is already outperforming Black Ops II by about a factor of 1.8. To put this into a bit of perspective, Modern Warfare 3 was second with 437,016 units, while Battlefield 3 was number 4 at 207,356 at the same time last year. It's worth noting however that these figues aren't representative of the final numbers, as pre-order figures are largely depended on publishers' marketing cycles. However, Halo 4's lead is interesting considering other competitors were behind Call of Duty at the same time in their marketing campaigns.
  
Next, Halo 4 is the most anticipated title according to a recent survey by nielsonwire. The survey, consisting of about 4800 gamers, found that it's the 360's most highly anticipated game, with Black Ops II very close behind. Though the data is too slight to draw a significant conclusion, it's an interesting statistic nonetheless.

Lastly, Halo 4 performed better with consumers than Black Ops II at E3 2012 according to Google Trends. The graph above shows the Search Volume and News Reference Volume for the two games. It's clear that consumers and journalists were more interested in Halo 4 than Black Ops II during this year's E3, which ran from June 4-7. Perhaps this shouldn't be surprising considering that E3 was Halo 4's big debut, but I think the margin is significant enough to warrant attention.

Next, Halo 4's game mechanics show an attempt to broaden the accessibility of the franchise. 343i is implementing many mechanics found in Call of Duty and RPGs to bring Halo 4 into the modern age of First Person Shooters. This is a smart move because this will lower the barrier to entry by familiarizing non Halo players with similar mechanics found in other games. These mechanics are also known for increasing player retention, relieving problems found in later Halo installments.

Perhaps more importantly is what separates Halo 4 from other past CoD competitors. Halo 4 doesn't follow many of the same tired tropes found in today's modern military games. Its art style, setting, and gameplay are vastly different than any blockbuster FPS on the market. In a time where each modern military FPS looks, feels, and plays the same, Halo 4 provides something new and different, yet familiar and accessible. I believe one of the main reasons why Halo 4 can rival CoD in this crowded and stagnant market is this differentiation. 

The final reason why I think Halo's latest installment can outsell Black Ops II is Microsoft's marketing strategy. It's been five years since a numbered Halo title was last released, so Microsoft is pushing hard to re-familiarize gamers and entice new ones. In addition to the usual TV spots, online ads, and other traditional forms of advertising, the Halo publisher is also investing in other marketing techniques.

To expand and reintroduce Halo to the masses, Microsoft is doing a few interesting things. First, Halo 4 will be marketed in movie theatres, presumably when movie trailers are shown. This method is used vary rarely to my knowledge so it could be a prime outlet to showcase the game to new faces. Microsoft is also producing a 5-part web series leading up to Halo 4's launch. The series, Halo 4: Forward UntoDawn, airs exclusively on Machinima, YouTube's most popular gaming channel. Each part airs every week until the game launches, making it a good way to embed Halo 4 into the minds of gamers everywhere. Microsoft also recently announced a Halo 4-themed Xbox 360, which may further incentivise Halo 4 over other holiday titles. In addition, it's safe to assume that Halo 4 will out-market Black Ops II on the Xbox Live dashboard since Microsoft owns both Halo and Xbox. And for what it's worth, the game is also launching before Black Ops II, which could theoretically take away sales from CoD.

Halo 4's long term marketing strategy involves one of its new modes: Spartan Ops, an episodic cooperative campaign. Every week for 10 weeks after the game launches, a new episode of Spartan Ops is released free of charge. This new mode is designed for players to have an incentive to keep playing Halo 4 weeks after the game is released. This strategy hopes to keep players invested in the Halo universe, staggering momentum from Call of Duty, and other titles in the process.

By looking at current statistics, game mechanics, and marketing techniques, it's clear that Halo 4 is shaping up to be Call of Duty's most threatening opponent yet. Market statistics suggest Halo 4 is leading the pack in pre-orders and consumer interest, showing that it currently possesses the potential to rival CoD's success. Its game mechanics suggest that it can offer accessible gameplay while at the same time providing a unique framework unlike any other AAA FPS. And finally, Microsoft's marketing strategy attempts to engrain Halo 4 into the medium's subconscious in unique ways, but also ensures long term stability with its Spartan Ops mode. For years, Call of Duty has dominated the Xbox 360, but there are significant reasons to believe that could change when Halo 4 releases this November.