State of the Franchise: BioShock

In this State of the Franchise, the BioShock brand is explored as well as its long term viability. Bioshock Infinite is also profiled and how its performance may impact the future of the series.

When BioShock Infinite was announced in August 2010, it was met with puzzlement and, in some cases, anger by many fans. This uproar wasn't so much about Infinite's premise, setting, or art style, which was marvellously showcased in its reveal cinematic trailer. The controversy surrounding Infinite stemmed from having "BioShock" in the title. Infinite is such a drastic departure from the original, many questioned why it shared the BioShock name. Whatever your stance on the subject, one thing is very clear: BioShock doesn't pertain to specific settings or characters anymore; BioShock is a brand.

This may be pure speculation, but it's not a stretch to suggest that 2K, BioShock's publisher, may have encouraged Irrational to include "BioShock" in the title. Unique, standalone IPs are risky after all, since they have to convince an audience from the ground up to buy their product with each outing. If these unique experiences all shared the same brand however, they may be less risky because they belong to an established property and by extension, an established audience. This is, what I think, why Infinite is part of the BioShock family. It makes further sense when BioShock Vita, an entirely original experience, and the BioShock movie are considered. Take Two is heavily investing in the BioShock name in hopes it will become a strong franchise.

But as much as I want BioShock games to be successful, I question whether this is a realistic pursuit. BioShock games, namely 1 and 2, were not hugely profitable, selling around 3.85 and 3.40 million copies respectively. During a quarterly conference call, Take Two commented on BioShock 2's sales saying they were below expectations and were "slower than expected." If BioShock games have already peaked, averaging around 3.6 million copies, then the sustainability of the franchise should be a concern.

There is further room for concern when considering BioShock's target market and brutally long development times. Bioshock's target demographic is, at least in today's market, not that large. Single player, atmospheric First Person Shooters isn't generally a genre associated with huge financial success. In addition, the length between installments is also cause for concern. The original game had an at least 3 year development cycle and numerous iterations while Bioshock infinite is currently sitting at a 5 1/2 year cycle. Bioshock games are profitable, but I question whether their long development cycles are justified.

These concerns lead to a potentially very troubling question: could the wellbeing of the BioShock franchise depend on Infinite's performance? Strictly business speaking, BioShock Infinite has a lot to prove. It must demonstrate that its sales figures warrant a 5 1/2 year development cycle, it has to show that a niche genre can be profitable alongside multiplayer-focused ones, and it must prove that a risky AAA game can be successful with limited publisher interference. To see if Infinite can meet these expectations, let's analyze where it currently sits.

BioShock Infinite is a critical darling and is being developed by a studio with a lot of goodwill. Infinite won countless awards at E3 2011, including Game of Show, and was the most anticipated title for many critics this year. However, critical praise doesn't always translate into a high sales volume as evidenced by Psychonauts, Okami, and Vanguish. Infinite currently sits at number 8 and 18 for most pre-orders in the US on the Xbox 360 and Playstation 3 respectively. It was also pushed back from October 2012 to February 2013, a five month delay. The reason for the delay is to polish the game, but it's also possible the holiday season was getting too competitive with Assassin's Creed III, Halo 4, and other anticipated blockbusters launching a few weeks later (this is mere speculation however but something to consider). Infinite's critical praise and pre-order numbers are comforting, but its delay could indicate Take Two is unsure of its success.  

If Infinite fails to meet expectations, it may be prudent to anticipate stricter publisher oversight on future BioShock installments. This may result in less risky games and more rigid development milestones for Irrational. This type of management isn't unheard of, as it's consistent with other popular franchises. The Dead Space series for example, is attempting to broaden its audience with Dead Space 3. EA, Dead Space's publisher, said that the franchise needs to have an install base of at least 5 million for Dead Space to be a worthwhile venture. If Infinite disappoints financially, I fear the same thing may happen to the BioShock franchise.

On the other hand, if Infinite's a success, expect hefty investment to continue to further expand the BioShock brand. I'd also expect development times to be reduced to a reasonable timeframe to allow for shorter wait times between installments. Infinite's success may also be an incentive for the Bioshock movie to be developed. Though I predict it will be vastly different from its current incarnation.

Right now, the movie is based on the original Bioshock, but is essentially cancelled because of its R-rating and steep budget requirements. However, it may make sense to set the movie in Columbia, the setting for Bioshock Infinite. Columbia isn't as obscure as Rapture, which may relief the extensive art, set, and CGI costs. It's also, as far as I can tell, not as gruesome or scary and lacks the high level of disturbing content and imagery of the original, which may bring down its R-rating. Lastly, Infinite's story is told through two, visible protagonists rather than BioShock's solitary experience. This may make Infinite more easily adaptable to film.

Despite the concerning evidence, only time will tell whether the BioShock franchise is viable or not. If it proves successful, it will be one of the few franchises that truly innovate and propel the medium forward with each installment. If not, it may find the same fate as many other once unique titles. It all depends if Infinite can shatter expectations and standard industry norms. The waiting game continues until BioShock Infinite ships on February 26, 2013.