Prediction Roundup: Volume III

Prediction Roundup attempts to rationalize and provide insight to some of the gaming industry's most pressing questions by using deductive reasoning and supporting facts. The following are predictions based on existing information and should not be treated as fact.

1) Nintendo will go back to basics next generation

If the Wii U fails to dig itself out of its hole, which let’s be honest, is very likely, I predict Nintendo will go back to a more traditional console/controller setup with a cheap price point as its differentiator. Nintendo probably realizes that it can’t capture the masses as it did with the Wii due to mobile gaming and pressure from Microsoft’s ever-improving Kinect. They have two choices: go third party and admit defeat or create a focused console that caters to their core demographic: parents and their 5-12 year old kids. 

For lack of a better word, Nintendo makes casual games. Today, buying a $350.00 console to play these games just doesn’t make sense. So what if Nintendo went the Ouya route by providing premium Nintendo content on a console with no gimmicks and limited functionality that cost $150.00 or less? I don’t have the data to back it up, but my guess is that parents are the primary purchaser of Nintendo products, not their kids. Parents wouldn’t hesitate to buy a console if it was cheaper than a tablet or phone, let alone a cheap Nintendo console. That’s why I think the $100.00 Ouya may be a roaring success if it’s marketed toward parents. Nintendo needs to provide a console that makes sense in today’s industry and caters to a clear target audience; a cheap, simple, and casual-focused gaming system just might be the answer.

2) Activision will experiment with standalone DLC next generation

FarCry 3: Blood Dragon was a bizarre but interesting experiment that, I think, will be a more common model in the next generation. Blood Dragon is a $15.00 downloadable game that uses existing FarCry 3 geometry, mechanics, and animation to create a completely standalone experience. Blood Dragon shows that unique and quality single player content can be made without the hefty investments in time, money, and labour it requires to create a new title.   

Over the last half decade, Infinity Ward and Treyarch have created a massive library of assets for the Call of Duty franchise. The two studios presumably pool and share these resources to allow for a short 2 year development cycle without sacrificing quality or compromising the budget (much like what Blood Dragon did). And with costs supposedly going to increase next generation and digital playing a greater role in distribution on consoles, Activision may allow Call of Duty’s library to be used to create standalone DLC.

Activision has shown that it’s not afraid to experiment with new properties and business models. Guitar Hero, Skylanders, and Destiny demonstrate Activision's willingness to differentiate its market segments and expand its current ones. With digital distribution playing a larger role next generation, discounted downloadable games may become an emerging market. 

Creating standalone single player DLC with existing assets avoids creating games from scratch while also avoiding the used game market completely. Treyarch have somewhat experimented with unique content and pre-existing tech with their Nazi-Zombie campaigns in Black Ops and Black Ops II. Call of Duty already has an established resource base, so why not use it to develop other properties?

Sharing resources across studios is consistent with many publishers in the industry today so I don’t think it’s out of the question for Activision to follow suit. EA is a great example of this, aligning its core and sports games with the Frostbite and Ignite engines respectively. Ubisoft also shares resources across its Assassin’s Creed teams. Activision just needs to ensure these downloadable titles don’t cannibalize Call of Duty or feel and look too familiar. 

3) PS4 will sell select first party games strictly through digital distribution

The PS4 and Xbox One will no doubt heavily emphasize digital purchases as it “cuts out the middle man” and slows used game sales. Though Microsoft uses an always online technique to limit used games, Sony has made it very clear they’re not going the same route. It’d be foolish however, to assume Sony doesn’t have a strategy to combat the used game market. 

Based on its PS+ service, it’s clear that Sony is growing a consumer-base of digital purchasers by providing discounted games, AAA content, and day-one releases. And since PS+ is required for multiplayer on PS4, the numbers of consumers exposed to PS+’s value will skyrocket. Instead of putting restrictions to limit the effect of used games like Microsoft, Sony is emphasizing digital downloads by simply providing greater value to consumers. 

To further attempt to make consumers familiar with digital purchasing, it may make sense for PS4 to make highly anticipated games or first party titles available through digital only channels (at least temporarily). Though Sony received thunderous applause at its E3 conference for its lack of restrictions for disc-based games, making games available exclusively through digital download may be an alternative method to eliminate used game sales.

4) BioShock 4 will be a discounted downloadable title exclusive to PS4

Probably one of the most unrealistic predictions here, but I believe there’s some significant evidence to support this claim. If my prediction about Sony’s digital strategy is correct, the next BioShock would be a perfect fit to promote digital purchasing. First, Ken Levine has expressed his desire to avoid another 5+ year development cycle for future projects; a smaller, compact BioShock game may be the solution. Developing a cheaper BioShock game may also provide greater creative freedom, presumably alleviating some of the creative constraints (like appealing to frat boys) Levine worked under on BioShock Infinite. A smaller budget, digital-only game may also be less risky than a $60.00 one since less volume is needed to recoup the investment. 

Second, Sony and BioShock have always had a strong relationship. The original BioShock had exclusive PS3 DLC, Infinite was optimized for PS3 and it included move support. But the most compelling evidence for a Sony exclusive BioShock is that there already is one: BioShock Vita. Though BioShock Vita is most likely in limbo due to the handheld’s mediocre sales, the fact remains that Sony has expressed interest in bringing an exclusive BioShock to its platforms. Besides, if an exclusive BioShock does make it to PS4, it will also be available on Vita though PS4’s mandatory cross play functionality, satisfying the game’s announcement at E3 2011.